QPR boss Beale explains why he is not a fan of XG stats

QPR boss Mick Beale is not a fan of XG (expected goals) stats. 

XG is measured by the quality of a goalscoring chance by calculating the likelihood that it will be scored from a certain position on the pitch during a particular phase of play and has become a huge feature in analytical breakdowns of matches played.

The value is based on several factors from before the shot was taken, with XG measured on a scale between zero and one – zero represents a chance that is impossible to score from and one represents a chance that a player would be expected to score every time.

Rangers are currently fifth in the Championship XG table for goals scored, behind Bristol City, Sheffield United, Burnley and West Brom.

But Beale believes Rangers, who have scored several of their goals this season from outside the box, are not rewarded by XG calculations.

“This XG thing, where has that come from?” Beale said.

“It doesn’t tell me anything apart from maybe there was a half a chance of a goal. But knowing who was the person on the end of a chance is important – it doesn’t tell me who is on the end of a cross.

“If we take away the goals Chris Willock and Ilias Chair have scored this season from outside the box or the one by Tyler Roberts against Charlton, then we might as well stop watching football.

“If the ball only goes in when it is meant to go in, it makes no sense.

“The XG thing puzzles me because we are penalised in the XG because Chris Willock can score from 30 yards and the other team don’t have someone who can do it.

“That is why we watch Lionel Messi and Ronaldo – they can do things the percentages don’t allow for, the things that make you get out of your seat.

“We have been fortunate to score maybe five or six goals this season that have been great team goals or fantastic individual moments.

“If you asked any QPR fan or any fan of football they would rather that than the tap-in.

“But me being the boring coach, I would like a mixture. For me Jimmy Dunne’s goal against Middlesbrough was goal of the month for me, a little scrappy header – I want more of them!”

Beale, who is regarded by many one of the most forward-thinking young coaches in the English game, is also sceptical about the current use of possession stats, which he believes are similarly flawed.

“I think they should only count possession in the other team’s half,” he said

“As far as I am concerned, we are only progressive as a team if we are in the other team’s half.”