West London Football: Which Team Is the Most Reliable for Over/Under Bets?

West London is a hotbed for professional football, and there is a local battle for pride to be the best in the area between Chelsea, Fulham, Brentford and QPR. While QPR are the only ones not in the Premier League, it doesn’t mean they should be overlooked for betting purposes.

The Over/Under goals market, which requires a prediction of how many goals will be scored in a game, is among the most popular for football betting. It can easily be found at operators recommended by one of the leading sources for bookmakers, legalbet.uk which analyses and rates them, both pre-match and in-play.

Only by searching out the attacking and defensive trends of teams can a strong prediction be made. But which of the West London clubs are the most reliable to use for the Over/Under football betting strategy?

The Over/Under Line

The standard line for football betting is Over/Under 2.5 goals, but the options don’t shift too far from even money. The real value of Over/Under betting is teasing the line, by adding or removing goals, like shifting to Under 0.5 or Over 3.5.

Goals Scored Per Season

The starting place to find the most reliable Over/Under team is to look at the average number of goals that they have each produced in the last five years. This accounts for declines in output, like Chelsea’s massive variance from the 2022-23 season when they scored just 38 goals and the following campaign when they returned 77.

For Brentford and Fulham, who have been between the Championship and Premier League during the period, their returns are based on a 38-game season.

In the last five completed seasons

  •     Chelsea averaged 63.6 goals per season for 1.67 goals per game.
  •     Fulham averaged 61.4 goals per season for 1.61 goals per game
  •     Brentford averaged 64.2 goals for 1.69 goals per game
  •     QPR averaged 55 goals per game for 1.19 goals per game

With each of the Premier League clubs returning Over 1.6 goals per game, there is little difference between them. It indicates that for any, it’s worth driving towards Over 2.5 Goal picks regularly. But the lower output from QPR in the Championship certainly hints that the Under 2.5 Goals options are more likely to apply to their matches.

Average Goals Against Per Season

It’s also worth examining how many goals on average the West Londoners give up, which will also dictate how the Over/Under line is looked at.

  •     Chelsea – 46.6 goals conceded per season = 1.22 goals against per game
  •     Fulham 51.6 goals conceded per season = 1.35 goals against per game
  •     Brentford 49.4 goals against per season = 1.3 goals against per game
  •     QPR 63.8 goals against per season = 1.38 goals against per game

Chelsea are consistently the most reliable in the defensive area of the game, which is no surprise for a big club. The interesting one is QPR because, with their average goals and average goals against numbers combined, that’s barely 2.5 goals. Which, in terms of reliability, again makes them the best option for going under the line.

Set In Stone

None of this is set in stone, however. From the averages, you would expect any clash between Chelsea and Brentford to go Over 2.5 goals, which the last two have done. However, it has only happened in three of the last eight meetings. Just one of the previous seven meetings between Chelsea and Fulham have gone above 2.5 goals as well.

So on a game-by-game basis, a lot will depend on whether the team is home or away, too. After 20 matches of the current season, for example, 73% of Brentford’s home games had gone Over 3.5 Goals, but only 30% of their road games had.

76% of all Brentford’s league matches for the season had gone above 2.5 goals, making them easily a strong reliable pick Over 2.5 goals. In contrast, just 57% of Chelsea’s league games for the 2024/25 season had gone above 2.5 goals.

Changing Trends

Grabbing averages over a long period is a good approach because teams have their ups and downs. But the above highlights a very strong point about Over/Under goals betting – current trends.

Just because something has been working for a team over the first half of the season, doesn’t mean that it is going to continue to do so. Strikers can go in and out of form, teams lose their attacking edge, a team can face a tough run of fixtures, and injury can change the landscape of things quite drastically.

So it is best to look at things in short periods of around six weeks. Then reassess to see if the current trend is still running.