September Is a Liar: Don’t Let Three Matches Tell You Who These Teams Are
By Garrett Chorpenning, OddsTrader
September football is dangerous.
Not because the players aren’t fit or managers haven’t figured out their best XI yet. Although, yes, sometimes both are true.
It’s dangerous because three matches are just enough football to make supporters, pundits and bettors feel like they’ve learned something definitive.
Chelsea lose once and suddenly the new era has cracks.
Brentford smash Tottenham and apparently they’re ready to terrorise London.
Fulham lose their opening three league games and everybody starts looking for the panic button.
Football has a remarkable ability to turn 270 minutes into a personality test.
Maybe don’t.
Chelsea’s First Defeat Didn’t Suddenly Expose Anything
Chelsea started life under Xabi Alonso by beating Fulham 3-2 and Brighton in another entertaining match before losing 2-1 at Arsenal.
That defeat at the Emirates was Chelsea’s first Premier League loss under Alonso, and it came after Morgan Rogers had actually put the Blues ahead inside two minutes. Arsenal responded through Kai Havertz and Martin Odegaard.
The temptation is obvious.
Two wins: Chelsea are back.
One loss: Maybe Chelsea aren’t ready.
There’s probably a third possibility.
They’re three matches into a new managerial regime.
Alonso himself sounded considerably less hysterical after the Arsenal defeat than parts of the football world tend to be after somebody drops three points.
“We know this is going to be a long way.”
He also stressed that it was only game three of a new phase and praised his players’ spirit and attitude.
Novel concept: perhaps the manager has realised the Premier League season lasts longer than a long weekend.
Brentford Already Gave Us Both Versions
Brentford might provide an even better warning against early conclusions.
They began the Premier League season by dismantling Tottenham 3-0.
Keane Lewis-Potter scored. Vitaly Janelt scored. Michael Kayode scored. Igor Thiago even missed a penalty, so it could have been worse.
That’s the kind of result that creates instant narratives.
The Bees are flying.
Tottenham are doomed.
Keith Andrews has cracked the code.
Then comes Sunderland.
Brentford needed a major halftime adjustment after Sunderland had dominated much of the opening period, and a late penalty ultimately denied the Bees victory.
Same Brentford.
Same manager.
Same season.
Very different afternoon.
And that’s precisely the point.
A club’s ceiling is not necessarily revealed by its best performance, just as its floor isn’t automatically established by its worst one.
Fulham May Be the Best Example of All
Fulham have started with three league defeats under Alvaro Arbeloa.
That’s not ideal.
Nobody is putting 0 points from 3 on a commemorative mug.
But even Fulham’s results require some context.
They were competitive with Chelsea in a 3-2 defeat. Against Crystal Palace, Fulham led twice before losing 3-2 after conceding twice in the second half.
That’s a bad start.
It isn’t necessarily a bad team.
Arbeloa put it neatly after the Palace loss:
“This month will not define our entire season.”
He also pointed out that Fulham’s upcoming schedule included Liverpool and Manchester United, hardly the football equivalent of being handed the house keys and told to make yourself comfortable.
There’s a difference between acknowledging poor results and deciding they permanently define the club.
Early-season football encourages people to forget that difference.
Bettors Are Especially Vulnerable to September
This becomes even more dangerous when money gets involved.
Fans are supposed to overreact.
That’s part of the fun.
Your striker scores twice and he’s winning the Golden Boot.
Your keeper has a nightmare and suddenly someone on social media is offering to drive him to the airport.
No harm done.
Bettors don’t have that luxury.
When Chelsea look brilliant twice, the market notices.
When Brentford destroy Tottenham, the market notices.
When Fulham lose three straight, the market notices.
Prices move.
And sometimes bettors end up paying for something that everybody already knows.
That’s why comparing the number can matter as much as deciding which team you like. The operators covered in OddsTrader’s online betting site guide can differ on pricing, markets, mobile experience, limits and account rules.
The football opinion is only half the wager.
The price is the other half.
One Result Can Distort Everything
Take Brentford’s 3-0 win against Tottenham.
It was impressive.
But if that performance makes the next Brentford price significantly shorter, bettors have to ask whether they’re still betting the team they identified — or paying a premium because everyone else watched the same match.
The opposite applies to Fulham.
If repeated defeats cause the market to become too pessimistic, there can eventually be a point where a struggling team becomes more interesting precisely because nobody wants it.
That doesn’t mean blindly betting losers.
Please don’t turn that sentence into a retirement strategy.
It means the relationship between team quality and market expectation matters.
Good team plus terrible price can equal bad bet.
Struggling team plus overly pessimistic price can occasionally equal opportunity.
Transfer Windows Make September Even Messier
West London’s clubs are also adjusting to significant squad changes.
Chelsea moved Enzo Fernandez to Manchester City for £125 million and signed goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez from Aston Villa.
Fulham added Hugo Larsson, Manuel Angel and David Affengruber late in the window, with Arbeloa openly acknowledging that the new arrivals weren’t immediately ready to start.
Brentford’s summer has been described by longtime club observer Ian Westbrook as potentially their best transfer window since the transformative 2019 summer that brought Bryan Mbeumo, Christian Norgaard, David Raya, Mathias Jensen and Ethan Pinnock. Those six eventually made more than 1,200 appearances for Brentford.
Those aren’t cosmetic changes.
Football teams aren’t video games where you drop new players into the lineup and everybody’s chemistry rating instantly jumps to 100.
It takes time.
Watch What Repeats
This is probably the best rule for the opening month.
Ignore the urge to crown anybody.
Watch what repeats.
Chelsea pressing aggressively once is interesting.
Chelsea doing it successfully for six matches is evidence.
Brentford creating chances against Tottenham is interesting.
Brentford consistently creating them against different opponents is evidence.
Fulham losing three matches is concerning.
Fulham continually defending badly in the same situations would be considerably more concerning.
One performance tells you what can happen.
Repeated performances begin telling you what usually happens.
That’s when the information gets useful.
September Is for Learning
Supporters don’t need patience.
They can boo, celebrate, declare the season over and then declare it saved seven days later.
That’s football.
Anyone trying to evaluate these teams seriously should be slightly less dramatic.
Chelsea may be very good under Alonso.
Brentford may have assembled another excellent team.
Fulham may eventually prove their opening results were warning signs rather than bad timing.
We don’t know yet.
And that’s okay.
September isn’t supposed to provide all the answers.
It’s supposed to start revealing which questions were worth asking in the first place.
Three matches can make a team look brilliant, broken or boring.
Give it another few weeks.
Football has an entertaining habit of making September experts look rather silly by October.