Stephan says missed chances are costing QPR – what does the data say?
Julien Stephan says QPR’s failure to take their chances is the reason they aren’t higher in the Championship table. The stats suggest he’s partly right, but also that poor finishing is not what is holding them back.
The Rangers head coach was frustrated after Tuesday’s 1-1 draw with Burnley – and with good reason. His team had plenty of possession and chances.
What Stephan said
“It’s not the first time since the start of the season and it’s probably now the main difference between the teams at the top of the table and us.
“We are a good team in the league but not able to kill when we have the opportunity is probably a part of our limit now.”
What the numbers say
Figures from Arena Rete do not necessarily point to poor finishing over the season as a whole.
QPR are scoring an average of 1.6 goals a game, eighth in the Championship, and their expected goals figure, which measures the quality of the chances they create, is also 1.6.
Stats: Arena Rete
In other words, they are scoring about as many goals as their chances deserve.
Where they have more room to improve is in creating the clearest chances.
QPR are fifth for total shots, with 15 a game, but only 10th for big chances created, with 2.4. West Ham lead that list with 3.8.
Stats: Arena Rete
The verdict
Stephan is right that there is a gap between QPR and the top sides, and individual matches such as the Burnley game have shown that Rangers can be wasteful.
But, over the season so far, the numbers suggest they are scoring roughly the goals their number of chances suggests they deserve.
Creating better chances with the possession they have would make all the difference.
